Why Economic Warfare is Much Better Than Military Warfare

I think we can all agree that military warfare is not only unwanted, but is also unproductive. I am not saying our military does not produce useful things, we know that is not true. But the act of sending our soldiers over to a foreign country to fight a war is very destructive. Not only are the financial costs high (Total costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are estimated north of 1 Trillion), but so are the emotional and social costs as well. Having people killed and be killed is not a walk in the park.

Iran has been a hot topic as of late. Not only because of rising oil prices because of supply disruptions from them, but also because of the possible looming threat of them becoming a nuclear power down the road. In the Republican primary debates, I have heard some of the candidates proclaim that they would go to any extent to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. While I agree with the view that Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would not be in the best interest of most nations in the world, why is there a need to automatically go to the extreme of going to war with them?

Economic warfare is not only cheaper and effective, but in the end, can also be much more productive. Just look at what has happened since the embargoes and sanctions were established.

Iran is losing production, which in turn is making their currency collapse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And because of a drop in production and a collapse in their currency, inflation is sky-rocketing. It is up over 20% YOY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Their economy is turning into a barter-based one (which is not effective at all). People are trying to get a hold of any other foreign currencies or gold. Food and food product (rice, cooking oil) prices have doubled.

Eventually all of this pressure on the economy will lead to an overthrowing of the government. While I do not like seeing people suffer, the only way out of the status quo is likely an “Arab-Spring” like revolution.

While sanctions against Iran and any retaliation from them will bring higher oil/gas prices in the short term, that might eventually be beneficial in the long term. With skyrocketing gas & oil prices, attention will be turned to alternatives like natural gas.

This is how economic warfare could be productive.  Ahmadinejad (Iran’s president), might end up saving the US Economy.

Tags: $MACRO 

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