What’s The Deal With Oil?
- Posted by TheArmoTrader
- on February 19th, 2013
With the market trending up since the beginning of the year (S&P 500 is nearly +7% YTD), Treasuries & Gold on the verge of a sell-off, and the Yen craziness, little attention has been paid to oil. While mention of gas prices are always evident, as WTI Oil ($CL_F) gets close to $100, I just have not seen any declarations of $200 oil like I have in the past. That might have to do with the fact that the US is getting more “energy-independent” by the day (via the shale revolution) or it just might have to do with the fact that other asset classes are taking up all the headlines. I don’t know, and frankly, it doesn’t matter too much.
But what I do know is charts, and oil is setup for a move in the near term.
$CL_F – Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures (Monthly)
I want to take at a super-long term chart before getting down to the daily. Here is the monthly chart for WTI oil. As you see, there is an ever-increasing symmetrical triangle/apex forming. We’ve had lower highs but also higher lows. This is bound to break way way or the other eventually.
(Click the image to embiggen)
Now for the daily. This is what I’ll be watching for in the following days/weeks. As you see, we have formed a nice little tight range between 95 & 98. A break below 95, and I’d expect oil to trade quickly down to 90. Above 98, naturally, I’d expect a test of 100. Yes, Not much to either side, but I wouldn’t expect a big move until the above apex actually breaks.
Right now, I’m thinking it breaks to the downside because of the potential double top pattern that’s forming. However, I have to respect the consolidation its been in after having a decent move (~14%) from the December 2012 low.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Jerry "TheArmoTrader" Khachoyan is currently an active trader, investor, market commentator, and Finance-Twitter participant. He started being involved with financial markets in September of 2008. He concentrates on using technical analysis and an understanding of macro to determine his trades and investments. He graduated UCLA with a degree in Political Science in 2013. The stock market to him is one of the greatest inventions by man.
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