Waiting For a Treasury Sell-off?
- Posted by TheArmoTrader
- on January 31st, 2012
Lots of people have been waiting for a treasury sell-off ever since the big run up back in August 2011. However, as I noted a few months back, I did not expect a bond sell-off anytime soon. In fact, betting for anything but a small retrace to the mean is betting against the $FED, who in this modern monetary system, is the ultimate decider of where the rates are going to be.
In fact, betting against any Sovereign Currency issuer who decides for low-interest rates is a no-win game. To show you a great example of this just take a look at Japan, who has had rates under 2.0% longer than most traders have been trading. In fact, since 2000, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond has only been touched 2.0% only once. If you want to fight the $FED, go ahead and be my guest, but in the end, its a no-win game.
(Note: I am not saying we are going to stay below ~2.0% like Japan as, but for the time being, betting for super-high rates is silly).
Japanese 10 year-Bond Rate
US 10 year Treasury Note Rate
Betting against this bullish chart? Good Luck
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Jerry Khachoyan is currently an undergraduate student at UCLA pursuing a degree in Political Science. He started trading in September of 2008. He concentrates on using technical analysis and reading the tape to enter the best risk/reward trades. The stock market to him is one of the greatest inventions by man.
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