Waiting For a Treasury Sell-off?

Lots of people have been waiting for a treasury sell-off ever since the big run up back in August 2011. However, as I noted a few months back, I did not expect a bond sell-off anytime soon. In fact, betting for anything but a small retrace to the mean is betting against the $FED, who in this modern monetary system, is the ultimate decider of where the rates are going to be.

In fact, betting against any Sovereign Currency issuer who decides for low-interest rates is a no-win game. To show you a great example of this just take a look at Japan, who has had rates under 2.0% longer than most traders have been trading. In fact, since 2000, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond has only been touched 2.0% only once. If you want to fight the $FED, go ahead and be my guest, but in the end, its a no-win game.

(Note: I am not saying we are going to stay below ~2.0% like Japan as, but for the time being, betting for super-high rates is silly).

Japanese 10 year-Bond Rate

 

US 10 year Treasury Note Rate

$TNX 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Betting against this bullish chart? Good Luck

$ZN_F

 

Tags: $IEF, $ZN_F, $TLT

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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