The Potential Leading and Losing Sectors
- Posted by TheArmoTrader
- on August 30th, 2011
Being in the midpoint of the massive drop from major support on the $SPX and the YTD lows, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the leading and lagging sectors. This way we can then gauge who will be the first ones to hit new highs if we do move up or which ones will hit new lows if we do drop. With the use of Technical Analysis, I have picked 1 potential leading sector (in case we move higher) and 1 potential loser sector (in case we move lower).
The Potential Leader
There are a few sectors showing strength right now, notably Ultilities ($XLU), Gold Miners ($GDX), and Consumer Staples ($XLP). However, it is pretty obvious why these stocks are showing strength as for the time being, it is “risk-off” and these are the sectors that will traditionally get bid up as the market falls. So which sector will see some upside if its “risk-on”?
$MOO – Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF
One of the reasons why I believe this sector will see a nice bid to it if its “risk-on” is because some of the holdings have been showing some relative strength lately. Stocks like $CF, $MON, $MOS and $DE are all well off their YTD lows and one ($CF) is even at all-time highs! As for the chart itself, it is well off lows (which is bullish) with an RSI reading of 67, putting the momentum on the bulls side for now. As you can see, it is above the important pivot of ~$50.60. The 50 day SMA is acting as resistance, but with some sideways consolidation, that will go below the price and we should be headed easily toward the 200 day SMA.
The Potential Loser
$OIH - Oil Services HOLDRs
The oil service stocks have been showing some weakness lately. One thing that catches my eye first is that while the market did NOT make a new low, the $OIH did. Now it is running into some trend-line resistance and the RSI is barely over the 50 midpoint mark. And while the $MOO is testing the 50 day SMA, this is NOWHERE near its own. As for the holdings, they do not look much better. $SLB, $HAL, $RIG and $BHI all look pretty bearish. If the market drops, I expect this sector to be sold off hard.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
Jerry Khachoyan is currently an undergraduate student at UCLA pursuing a degree in Political Science. He started trading in September of 2008. He concentrates on using technical analysis and reading the tape to enter the best risk/reward trades. The stock market to him is one of the greatest inventions by man.
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