The Gas Prices in These 3 Cities Will Determine The Election

Gas Prices are usually an economic bellwether when it comes to gauging a lot of things (rightfully or not is a different question). Inflation, consumer confidence, economic demand, success of energy policy all are usually someway tied to gas prices. While I believe using gas prices to gauge [Insert economic indicator here] are blown out of proportion, that doesn’t mean gas prices cannot have an effect on how people will vote.

As Professor James Hamilton explains in this post, he doesnt expect gas prices to have an effect on the election. While I think he is right, his view is that from a $MACRO level. On a Micro level, gas prices in a highly competitive, independent, and major county can have a major impact.

Business Insider had a post last week that discussed the 8 most important counties in the election. In there you had counties in major swing states like Florida, Virginia and Wisconsin. A swing in prices could influence just the right number of people needed to win that county over.

Below is the 18 month Average Retail Price for a Gallon of Gas for the 3 biggest cities in the 3 (listed) biggest counties. If you see these prices stay up in the following 30 days, you’d have to be thinking that isn’t winning over any voters for Obama (and thus those  voters will likely flock to Romney). However, as I think gas prices will come down in the following month, I think you’d have to bet on Obama winning these counties, IF the swing voters in these cities took gas prices into serious consideration (certainly not a lock).

The 3 cities are:

Tampa, FL.

Richmond, VA.

Green Bay, WI.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Click image to embiggen!)

 

Tags: $UGA $RB_F $MACRO $USO

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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