Predictions For 2013

I can’t believe 2012 was over. It was a fun year for me. I remember writing my predictions for 2012 like it was yesterday. It’s that time of the year again. So let’s get started.

Before I do, I want to go over last years predictions quickly. Here is a screenshot from my WordPress blog login, showing that I have not edited any of the predictions. As you see, “Predictions for 2012″ was last touched on 12/29/11.

Predictions '12

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012 $TWELVE Predictions  

1) I said the $SPX high would be 1415. I was relatively close, as it was 1474. I said the low would be 1155. It was 1258, way off on that one.

2) I said bonds would remain strong, and they had a modest year. I said the 10 year yield low would be 1.39%, and it turns out, I hit the nail on the head. I was off on the high (2.61 vs 2.39).

3) I said WTI Oil’s range would be $80-$112. The low for the year was 77.28 and the high was 110.55. I’d say I nailed that. I guessed the Brent/WTI spread would average $10, but in fact, it averaged roughly $20.

4) I said Gold to trade between 1250-1800. The year high was 1798. I was too bearish on Gold, as the low of the year was only 1526. I expected Silver to get hit hard as well (down to $15), but it never came. I also expected Platinum’s premium (vs Gold) to come back, but that never materialized. I was too bearish on Copper as well (expected 3.00 EOY finish).

5) I was too bullish on the Dollar, and on the flipside, bearish on the Euro. Even though the Dollar saw strength midyear ($USDX to 84 vs 90 predicted) and the Euro saw weakness ($EURUSD to ~1.21 vs 1.05) , I “overshot” my predictions by a lot.

6) My ‘no QE3′ guess was right, until the $FED flipped on a dime in September and initiated it, and even QE4 later on in the year.

7) Even though I was not a housing bear, I did not predict housing would turn so quickly/decently in the 1st half of 2012. The jury is still out for my “better GDP growth” guess, but unless Q4 comes in a disaster, I think I got it right.

8-9) China slowed down, Europe is in a recession, just like I thought (not too hard to guess that last year).

10) Obama won. Unemployment dropped (guessed 8.3 for October, it was 7.9). Democrats held their Senator majority and Republicans held the house.

11-12) I had some bad stock specific guesses, especially on $AAPL. My sector specific predictions were OK (like Utilities under-performing). Stocktwits/Twitter grew more. MMT (and some of its specific realities) picked up major steam in 2012. And I met a bunch of people from Twitter over the past few months.

My Predictions 2013 $TWENTY13

Going to just have 10 predictions this year.

1) The S&P 500 ($SPX) will rally to 1525. The low will be somewhere around 1320. We will see a major rally in the 2nd half of the year. The first half is going to be met with a lot of range trading.

2) Bonds  ($TLT) will do nothing for most of the first half of the year. They’ll start to sell off a bit in the 2nd half. I expect the 10 year treasuries yield range to be between 1.50 and 2.60. All the “debt crisis” predictions will be wrong….again.

3) WTI oil ($USO) will trade in a range from 70-95. We won’t see any major/quick spike/drop. Same goes with Gas ($UGA). Natural Gas ($UNG) will not rally, however, it won’t get creamed like it did in mid-2012.

4) Gold ($GLD) will have its first down year in 12 years. The range will be between 1350-1725. Silver will also get hit (range 20-32). Copper will stay in the 3.50-4.00 range.

5) The Dollar will be fairly weak. I expect it to be bid in the first half (high of ~82), followed by a weakening in the 2nd half (low of 75). $EURUSD range will be 1.22-1.40.

6) The $FED has pulled out most of its big guns and I expect them to “stay put” until they see a significant change (either in inflation or UE). If they see signs of a recession/UE spiking, then they might even start targeting NGDP. However, I expect them to pull the gas off the pedal towards the end of the year as the economy shows some strong signs of strength.

7) Economy: I expect a slowdown for the economy (NO recession) in Q1, some stabilization in Q2, and a major pickup in Q3 and Q4. The drag from State/Local Government’s should finally be over.

8) Housing:  Housing should end the year positive again, but don’t expect a big national gain.I expect mortgage rates to stay low for most of the year.

9)  China’s growth will be stable. Don’t expect a major slowdown. However, the days of 9-11% growth are over (expect 6-8%). Europe has avoided crisis, but their economies will still remain weak as long as they are focused on deficit reduction. Japan will NOT experience a debt (or inflation) crisis. I don’t expect any “aggressive actions” by the BOJ to get the economy going again.

10) I expect even a bigger year from Twitter & Stocktwits. Mainstream economics keeps getting challenged, thanks to the econo-blogosphere. I meet more people from the twitter/ST-sphere! My trading takes the next step needed to move forward.

Here’s to a great 2013!

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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