I See Cheaper Gas In The Future

To everyone who reads my blog, I have been pretty busy over the past few weeks with Earnings Season and School. Earnings season is still in full swing and my blogging is likely to be limited mainly to the weekends.

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One thing I’ve noticed  is the very similar pattern of gasoline when compared to Last year. There are a couple of things that are similar to last year which gets me thinking that we might see cheaper gas in the future.

  1. Big run up from the previous year into the end of quarter one of the current year.
  2. Run-up caused by speculation/premium of  Supply decreases and future possible shocks. (Arab Spring Last year, Iran this year)
  3. Improving economic numbers in the new year.
  4. Strong momentum in risk markets (thus strong/similar technical patterns).
  5. Gasoline Demand peaking earlier in the year and not in Summer (saw a stat earlier this month that said it has been happening for 3 years straight now)

 

These thing have led me to believe that we could see a decent drop in the price of gasoline in the following few months is very possible. The charts are even looking the same, however, there is a major negative divergence occurring as well in the RSI and MACD indicators. I don’t use these indicators too much but when the patterns are very identitcal, it is hard to not look at them.

The Chart

$RB_F – Gasoline Futures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: $RB_F, $UGA, $USO

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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