Gas Expenditures as a Percent of PCE
- Posted by TheArmoTrader
- on February 20th, 2012
Gas has become a hot topic of late. We can partially thank Iran for it, but we can also thank the decent economic data (demand) that has come out of Asia and the United States over the past 2 months. While my thoughts have been clear, that the Federal Reserve ($FED) cannot create demand-driven inflation (and can only really boost inflation-expectations in the short term), the one thing that does worry me about inflation is oil and a spike in gas prices. We saw how badly that could hurt the economy back in late 70s and early 80s, especially with high unemployment which would set us up for a very bad stagflationary environment. (Josh over at The Reformed Broker had a great piece that is a must read.)
To make the picture a bit more clear, I decided to see what gas expenditures looked like as a percent of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). This shows how much percent of American’s expenses goes towards gas. While we are definitely not in the high range, we are definitely not where we can be. This should easily be in the lows 3.00s.
But its not, and in fact, we are above the average (3.79%) since 1959 as the 2011 Q4 registered a 3.9% reading. I am sure this has edged closer to 4.0% lately as gas and oil prices hit multi-month highs.
Gas Expenditures as a Percent of PCE (quarterly chart)
Data courtesy of BLS (Table 2.3.5U)
Here’s a similar chart (slightly outdated), courtesy of Econbrowser. This is energy expenditures as a percent of PCE. Looks very similar to the chart above.
Clearly, the trend has been up since the recession ended. Hard to see this not get back up to the levels near 2008 if the supply shortages continue as demand pents up. The US really needs to find new energy solutions before it is too late.
Courtesy of EconBrowser again, here’s an updated chart of the Energy Expenditures as a % of Consumer Spending. Looks like energy costs are dropping even though Gas costs are rising.
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Jerry Khachoyan is currently an undergraduate student at UCLA pursuing a degree in Political Science. He started trading in September of 2008. He concentrates on using technical analysis and reading the tape to enter the best risk/reward trades. The stock market to him is one of the greatest inventions by man.
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