What’s Going On In Markets?

It’s been a while since I posted something here, so I thought I’d do an update on a few markets. I’ll be looking at US Stocks, Treasuries, Gold, and the US dollar.

The Charts

Stocks

The stock market (as measured by the $S&P 500) hit an all-time high just a few days ago, on April 4. However, if you take a broader view, you’d see the market is flat for the year (light yellow line=2014 open). Like I said in my earlier blog posts, this is a good development long-term. As we consolidate in time and not price, this will set us up for a healthy, longer-term move higher.

What you don’t want to see though, is the next pullback be lower than the pullback in mid-February (so that’s about 1,740) . So far, over the past two years, every major pullback low has been higher than the previous one (which indicates that the bulls are willing to step up and buy higher). So overall, stocks still look mildly-bullish long-term.

$SPX Daily

SPXdailyApr8

 

Treasuries 

The “long bond” also has not done much over the past few months. After having a massive sell-off in 2013 (mainly due to the Head and Shoulders pattern – at least technically), bonds bottomed on literally the last day of 2013, and since have been moving ever so creepingly up. However, an area of resistance has not let bonds “break out”. My pal @AllStarCharts highlighted this area in a post a few weeks back, and as you can see, it still is providing trouble for the $TLT.

Despite it acting as resistance, there more we test it, the likelier it is to break. So I’d expect bonds to head higher from here, especially after setting up a very nice base of the course of the last few months (though it might take a little more time).

$TLT Weekly

TLT weekly

 

Gold

Gold so far has had a bullish year. After double-bottoming in late 2013, we saw a nice run of about 9%. However, Gold seems to have run into some trouble here. The 1380-1425 area has acted as resistance as of late, so until Gold gets above that, it’s hard to be anything but neutral on it. I would start to get bearish if it cannot hold this recent swing-low of ~1275, but otherwise hard to be super bearish until it breaks ~1200 (the double bottom/support as of now).

$GC_F weekly

Gold weekly

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Dollar

The Dollar is right in the middle of it’s multi-year range. What I’ll be watching is for it to break below or hold 79. If we hold, I expect a bounce to the down trendline. If we break 79, we will probably see some heavy selling come in.

$USDX Monthly 

USDXmonthlyapr8

 

 

Tags: $SPY $SPX $TLT $IEF $ZB_F $ZN_F $GLD $GC_F $DZZ $UUP $USDX $DX_F $EURUSD

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