- Posted by TheArmoTrader on April 9th, 2014 at 12:06 am
It’s been a while since I posted something here, so I thought I’d do an update on a few markets. I’ll be looking at US Stocks, Treasuries, Gold, and the US dollar.
The stock market (as measured by the $S&P 500) hit an all-time high just a few days ago, on April 4. However, if you take a broader view, you’d see the market is flat for the year (light yellow line=2014 open). Like I said in my earlier blog posts, this is a good development long-term. As we consolidate in time and not price, this will set us up for a healthy, longer-term move higher.
What you don’t want to see though, is the next pullback be lower than the pullback in mid-February (so that’s about 1,740) . So far, over the past two years, every major pullback low has been higher than the previous one (which indicates that the bulls are willing to step up and buy higher). So overall, stocks still look mildly-bullish long-term.
The “long bond” also has not done much over the past few months. After having a massive sell-off in 2013 (mainly due to the Head and Shoulders pattern – at least technically), bonds bottomed on literally the last day of 2013, and since have been moving ever so creepingly up. However, an area of resistance has not let bonds “break out”. My pal @AllStarCharts highlighted this area in a post a few weeks back, and as you can see, it still is providing trouble for the $TLT.
Despite it acting as resistance, there more we test it, the likelier it is to break. So I’d expect bonds to head higher from here, especially after setting up a very nice base of the course of the last few months (though it might take a little more time).
Gold so far has had a bullish year. After double-bottoming in late 2013, we saw a nice run of about 9%. However, Gold seems to have run into some trouble here. The 1380-1425 area has acted as resistance as of late, so until Gold gets above that, it’s hard to be anything but neutral on it. I would start to get bearish if it cannot hold this recent swing-low of ~1275, but otherwise hard to be super bearish until it breaks ~1200 (the double bottom/support as of now).
The Dollar is right in the middle of it’s multi-year range. What I’ll be watching is for it to break below or hold 79. If we hold, I expect a bounce to the down trendline. If we break 79, we will probably see some heavy selling come in.
No, Government Spending Is Not Exploding
Posted by TheArmoTrader on March 9th, 2014 at 7:56 pm
There’s this common knowledge of acceptance that government spending is out of control. That the government is spending increasingly more and more money every year. This is quite wrong actually.
Now THIS Is Resistance
Posted by TheArmoTrader on February 23rd, 2014 at 10:33 pm
The Stock Market is sitting right below all-time highs. However, year-to-date, stocks are pretty much flat with the S&P 500 sitting at a -0.2% return.
Stocks Keep On Trucking
Posted by TheArmoTrader on February 18th, 2014 at 1:01 am
It’s should be no surprise to anyone that the stock market has done pretty well over the past two years. But the way it’s moved […]
Rooting For A Choppy January
Posted by TheArmoTrader on January 23rd, 2014 at 1:07 am
So far, the start of this year has been pretty dull for the bulls. We’ve seen no (sizable) sell-off, so there’s been no juicy “buying the dip” opportunity, and there’s been no ‘start of the year’ rally.
Is Gold About To Move Higher?
Posted by TheArmoTrader on January 13th, 2014 at 1:25 am
Gold had a terrible year in 2013. In fact, it was the 1st time Gold had a down year since 2000 and in fact had its worst year in nearly 3 decades.
Predictions for 2014
Posted by TheArmoTrader on January 1st, 2014 at 8:26 pm
Here are my 2014 Predictions!
The Best & Worst Performing Industries of 2013
Posted by TheArmoTrader on December 31st, 2013 at 1:55 am
Here are the best and worst performing industries of 2013. Some surprises on the top and bottom.
The 2013 Chart Of The Year
Posted by TheArmoTrader on December 30th, 2013 at 1:29 am
There has been a couple of posts over the previous few weeks that have highlighted the “charts/graphs of the year”. There are a lot of noteworthy/good charts in there, but I think there is one chart – the true 2013 chart of the year- that’s missing.
Will 2014 Mark the Return of Market Volatility?
Posted by Jake Huska on December 16th, 2013 at 11:15 pm
If there is one thing that can be said about 2013 in the market is that it was anything but volatile, relatively speaking.
Jerry Khachoyan is currently an undergraduate student at UCLA pursuing a degree in Political Science. He started trading in September of 2008. He concentrates on using technical analysis and reading the tape to enter the best risk/reward trades. The stock market to him is one of the greatest inventions by man.
- What’s Going On In Markets?
- No, Government Spending Is Not Exploding
- Now THIS Is Resistance
- Stocks Keep On Trucking
- Rooting For A Choppy January
- Is Gold About To Move Higher?
- Predictions for 2014
- The Best & Worst Performing Industries of 2013
- The 2013 Chart Of The Year
- Will 2014 Mark the Return of Market Volatility?
- A Bearish Pattern For Bitcoin?
- This Chart Nearly Disproves The Myth Surrounding Unemployment Insurance
- A Modest Proposal For The Minimum Wage Debate
- What Exactly Is Economic Growth?
- Bonds Are Hanging On For Dear Life